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USDA Hogs & Pigs Report               03/28 14:37

US March 1 Hog Inventory Up 1% From Year Ago

                           2023               2024              2024 as
                                                                percent
                                                                of 2023
                       (1,000 head)       (1,000 head)         (percent)

All Hogs March 1         74,136              74,571               101
Kept for Breeding         6,146               6,016                98
Kept for Marketing       67,990              68,556               101

WEIGHT BREAKDOWN
Under 50 lbs.            20,444              20,749               101
50-119 lbs.              19,049              19,333               101
120-179 lbs.             15,749              15,804               100
180 lbs.                 12,748              12,670                99

FARROWINGS/INTENTIONS* 
Dec-Feb                   2,952               2,875                97
Mar-May*                  2,941               2,915                99
Jun-Aug*                  3,040               2,987                98
Dec-Feb Pig Crop         32,537              33,148               102

                          (number)          (number)           (percent)

Dec-Feb Pigs Per Litter   11.02               11.53               105

This article was originally published at 2:15 p.m. CDT on Thursday, March 
28. It was last updated with additional information at 2:37 p.m. CDT on 
Thursday, March 28.

**

OMAHA (DTN) -- United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on March 1, 
2024, was 74.6 million head. This was up 1% from March 1, 2023, but down 
2% from Dec. 1, 2023, USDA NASS reported on Thursday.

Breeding inventory, at 6.02 million head, was down 2% from last year, but 
up slightly from the previous quarter.

Market hog inventory, at 68.6 million head, was up 1% from last year, but 
down 2% from last quarter.

The December 2023-February 2024 pig crop, at 33.1 million head, was up 2% 
from last year. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.88 million 
head, down 3% from previous year. The sows farrowed during this quarter 
represented 48% of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter 
was 11.53 for the December 2023-February 2024 period, compared to 11.02 
last year. 

United States hog producers intend to have 2.92 million sows farrow during 
the March-May 2024 quarter, down 1% from the actual farrowings during the 
same period one year earlier, and down 2% from the same period two years 
earlier. Intended farrowings for June-August 2024, at 2.99 million sows, 
are down 2% from the same period one year earlier, and down 3% from the 
same period two years earlier. 

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 
5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 52% of the total 
United States hog inventory, up 1% from the previous year.

REVISIONS

All inventory and pig crop estimates for March 2023 through December 2023 
were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and 
updated import and export data. The revision made to the December 2023 all 
hogs and pigs inventory was 1.1%. A revision of 0.5% was made to the 
September 2023-November 2023 pig crop. The net revision made to the 
September 2023 all hogs and pigs inventory was 2.4%. A net revision of 
3.1% was made to the June-August 2023 pig crop.

DTN ANALYSIS

"Thursday's quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will most likely be received as 
slightly bearish given that the market saw a slight uptick in all the hogs 
as of March 1, and there are slightly more hogs weighing 120 to 179 pounds 
and 180-plus than the market expected," said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe 
Stewart.

"When you break the report down line item by line item, it doesn't appear 
as though anything should be off-kilter. But when you consider the 
revisions made (December all hogs up 1.1% and September all hogs up 2.4%), 
there are more hogs in the market than originally believed -- which 
usually is tough for the market to stomach. 

"I find it noteworthy to mention that the breeding herd is down 2% 
(6,016,000 head) from a year ago, which again highlights the fact that 
producers endured painful financial hardships in 2023 and scaled back 
because of a lack of profitability. 

"When looking at summer 2024 hog prices, June, July and August are 
expected to trade higher, as strong pork demand mixed with thinner 
supplies is anticipated to keep the market elevated. But Thursday's report 
didn't show as big of a decrease as the market expected for market hogs 
weighing 120 to 179 pounds. That weight bracket totaled 15,804,000 head, 
which is steady with a year ago -- pre-report estimates believed it would 
be down by 1%. Hogs weighing over 180 pounds totaled 12,670,000 head which 
is down 1% from a year ago. 
 
"All in all, Thursday's report will likely be found to be neutral to 
slightly bearish by hog producers and market traders," Stewart said.

**

To view the full Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, visit 
https://www.nass.usda.gov/


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