DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/22 11:42
Grains Lightly Mixed at Midday
Wheat is the leader at midday up a nickel, with row crops struggling in slow
trade at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow 180 lower. The
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 3 points lower. Energies
are weaker with crude down $1.60. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are
weaker with gold down $2.
Corn trade is 2 cents lower in quiet trade at midday as we return from the
holiday on Monday with rangebound trade looking to continue to start the week.
The South American recent weather pattern remains intact with a mix of
excessive rain and pockets of dryness with some potential improvement down the
road. Ethanol margins remain poor with futures still near the lows with
significant blender margin improvement likely waiting until spring with futures
fading again this morning. Winter weather will likely slow corn movement again,
keeping basis flat to firmer. The government partial shutdown is expected to
continue to limit news. Weekly export inspections were good at 1.08 million
metric tons. On the March chart, support is the multiple moving averages at the
$3.77-3.79 area, with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $3.83 7/8.
Soybean trade is mixed with light two sided trade to open the week. Meal is
flat to $1 lower, and oil was 5 to 15 points lower. South America weather items
remain in the recent weather pattern with harvest going early amid heat and
pockets of dryness in Brazil with generally disappointing yields so far, and
excessive rain potential in Argentina. Basis has been pretty flat with the
weather likely to add support. Weekly export inspections were good at 1.1
million metric tons. Forecasts are being monitored closely. Support is the
$9.07 50-day moving average, and resistance the 200-day at 9.25.
Wheat trade is 1 to 5 cents higher at with more talk of Russian restrictions
adding support to the market with trade looking to challenge the next levels of
resistance, with trade backing a little off the upper end of the range. The
dollar has bounced last week into this week, but remains in the lower part our
two-month range. Southern Hemisphere harvest will continue in the near term.
North American winter wheat should be OK moisture wise with cold snaps the
biggest threat for now. Russia domestic prices will be watched closely with
firmer values again there. On the March Kansas City chart, support is the
50-day at $5.04 with resistance the upper Bollinger band at $5.11.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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